Hennessy Day is upon us once more. One of the great races in the calendar and a race that has seen the greatest horses compete in. From Arkle to Bobs Worth and with Denman and co in between, there have been great names on the role of honour. The race itself is always competitive and a great betting heat, plus there is always something to take for the future with both Grand National winners and Gold Cup winners participating in previous years. So whatever the outcome today, ensure that you have made a note of any horses running well and plan to back them.
I’m looking forward to seeing some of these develop over the season. Merry King could be a possible Welsh National winner, given that this horse needs soft ground and a test of stamina to be at his best. Loch Ba has the look of a horse that could improve enough over the next year or two to make up into a Grand National contender. Invictus was a very good novice but his high ranking eminates from the Reynoldstown win over Bobs Worth and Silvinacio Conti, and there were circumstances that made that win look better than it was in my book.
So on to today’s race and the selection, which we shall arrive at by playing Last Man Standing. Every year, the top weight carries 11st 12lbs but as this is based on horses’ ratings, then the class ceiling may be low or high. In the past few years, with Denman and Tidal Bay both running, the top rated horse has been running off marks of between 166 and 182, making the race very high class. This year we see Cape Tribulation topping the weights off the lowly mark of 158. Now 4 times in the past 10 years, the top weight has run off a mark in the 150s and each time, the winner has carried at least 11 stone. This is our starting point. That eliminates the bottom third of the field.
Age wise, 8 of the last 10 winners were either 6 or 7, making it a great race for young, improving, second season chasers. So of the horses over 11 stones, let’s throw out Cape Tribualtion, Prince De Beauchene and Imperial Commander. We still have a long list of 11 horses to sift through. The ground has been riding on the good side this week and this will surely count against the mudlarks such as Katenko, Houblon Des Obeaux, Our Father and Cloudy Too, so we say adios to these 4. 7 more still standing. I fear that Super Duty may be embroiled in a front running battle and don’t think he will have the ability to tough it out. Super 6 still standing.
Opening Batsman has run poorly on his last 2 starts and I don’t think this is the race to be redeeming yourself. Blinkers have been applied to Hadrians Approach to sharpen up his jumping, but it needs to do if he is to be competitive in this. I’m losing these 2 from my list. We are now down to 4 horses, Lord Windermere, Rocky Creek, Triolo D’Alene and Same Difference. Of these, Rocky Creek has to show he can handle a field of this size, as his best form is in single figure ones and Triolo D’alene I just have doubts about being tough enough for this battle.
At last, we are down to the final 2, Lord Windermere and Same Difference. These are 2 second season chasers who both won at Cheltenham, the hardest place to win due to the nature of the racing. I was really impressed with the way Lord Windermere travelled and jumped en route to winning the RSA. He certainly wasn’t stopping up the hill and stamina looks to be his forte, whilst Same Difference showed admirable battling qualities to win the Kim Muir and unlike some of the others, will definitely be staying on at the end of the race.
3.00 Newbury take 9s for Lord Windermere with ToteSport. Also add Same Difference at 50s with Betfair to your portfolio and enjoy the race.
