The final day of the turf flat season 2013 and with it we see the November Handicap. A race over 12f in the soft with the long straight of Town Moor sorting out the men from the boys. This race is full of seasoned handicappers and wannabe group horses. So let’s look at 1 that we have backed before. Lahaag I backed ante post for the Lincoln, the first major handicap of the season and run over 1m, so imagine my surprise to see him 8 months later being one of the major fancies for this over 4f longer! For me, he won’t truly stay and ridden by P. Hannagan, my money will not be placed on him. I believe that the first season of Hannagan’s retainer with the Maktoums has been a flop and don’t think he is up to riding such high profile horses.
So what will win? Well let’s use the stats to help us. First up the fact we will use is that the last 10 winners were all rated between 89 and 99. That means this year we don’t have a massive number of horses to choose from: Only 10 fit this trend, numbers 3 to 13. Good news. If we then add in the weight trend we lose 2 more, numbers 12 and 13. So now we have only 8 to choose from.
Age wise, 3 and 4 yos have a great combined record so we have to utilise this and lose Conduct, Highland Castle and Communicator, leaving us only 5: Hi There, Open Eagle, Awake My Soul, NicholasCopernicus and Forgotten Hero.
So on to the next trend, the number of races each horse has run this season, with no more than 7 being advisable. We lose all but Open Eagle and NicholasCopernicus. Our final two. Do we stop there and back both? That would probably be the best call, but hey ho let’s look at the next trend. Won or placed on either or both of last 2 starts, no nothing to choose there, they both stand. Now the time between their last run and today with the optimum period being 14 and 60 days. No they both pass this test. Should we stop or press on?
Press on it is then! Ha. Did they both run in a class 2 or class 3 handicap last time out? You bet your life they did! So finally 1 last question, have they both won over at least 1m 3F? Yes indeedy! So there you have it I can’t seperate them on the 8 key stats, so suggest that you back both Open Eagle at 16s with BetVictor and NicholasCopernicus at 14s with William Hill to win the November Handicap the 3.35pm at Doncaster.
